New York Liberty at Toronto Tempo

NY 106 – TOR 69

September 20, 2026 · Final

Best model for this game

Reg

All models: 2-0

Prediction ranges

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

All 2 models’ predicted scores

NY — one dot per model TOR — one dot per model Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

Vince Chambers Tol Warning

NY 82.7–94.3 TOR 76.3–89.5 Overlap 6.79 pts Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 88.5) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.9) — by 5.6 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

NY 83.6–93.4 TOR 77.3–88.5 Overlap 4.88 pts Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 88.5) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.9) — by 5.6 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

NY 84.2–92.8 TOR 78.0–87.8 Overlap 3.62 pts Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 88.5) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.9) — by 5.6 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

NY 84.6–92.3 TOR 78.5–87.3 Overlap 2.65 pts Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 88.5) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.9) — by 5.6 points. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.

NY 85.0–92.0 TOR 79.0–86.9 Overlap 1.83 pts Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 88.5) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.9) — by 5.6 points. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.

Show the math

Model: Vince Chambers (#1)
t-statistic: 7.22
p-value: 9.81e-05

A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.

Reg Tol Warning

NY 86.8–91.6 TOR 78.2–87.3 Overlap 0.48 pts Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 89.2) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.7) — by 6.5 points. The ranges barely touch.

NY 87.2–91.2 TOR 78.9–86.6 No overlap Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 89.2) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.7) — by 6.5 points. The 90% ranges don't overlap at all — a confident model.

NY 87.4–91.0 TOR 79.3–86.1 No overlap Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 89.2) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.7) — by 6.5 points. The 85% ranges don't overlap at all — a confident model.

NY 87.6–90.8 TOR 79.7–85.7 No overlap Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 89.2) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.7) — by 6.5 points. The 80% ranges don't overlap at all — a confident model.

NY 87.8–90.6 TOR 80.0–85.4 No overlap Actual: NY 106, TOR 69

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans New York Liberty (avg. 89.2) over Toronto Tempo (avg. 82.7) — by 6.5 points. The 75% ranges don't overlap at all — a confident model.

Show the math

Model: Reg (#2)
t-statistic: 14.28
p-value: 6.91e-06

View as table

Vince Chambers — NY at TOR — Actual: NY 106, TOR 69
Level	NY range	TOR range	Overlap	Tol Warning	Actual landed in range?
95%	82.7–94.3	76.3–89.5	6.79 pts	Yes	No
90%	83.6–93.4	77.3–88.5	4.88 pts	Yes	No
85%	84.2–92.8	78.0–87.8	3.62 pts	Yes	No
80%	84.6–92.3	78.5–87.3	2.65 pts	Yes	No
75%	85.0–92.0	79.0–86.9	1.83 pts	Yes	No

Reg — NY at TOR — Actual: NY 106, TOR 69
Level	NY range	TOR range	Overlap	Tol Warning	Actual landed in range?
95%	86.8–91.6	78.2–87.3	0.48 pts	Yes	No
90%	87.2–91.2	78.9–86.6	— pts	Yes	No
85%	87.4–91.0	79.3–86.1	— pts	Yes	No
80%	87.6–90.8	79.7–85.7	— pts	Yes	No
75%	87.8–90.6	80.0–85.4	— pts	Yes	No