Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks

POR 84 – LAS 105

September 20, 2026 · Final

Best model for this game

Vince Chambers

All models: 0-2

Prediction ranges

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

All 2 models’ predicted scores

POR — one dot per model LAS — one dot per model Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

Vince Chambers Tol Warning

POR 78.1–92.1 LAS 78.4–86.4 Overlap 8.07 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 85.1) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 82.4) — by 2.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

POR 79.2–91.0 LAS 79.0–85.8 Overlap 6.65 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 85.1) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 82.4) — by 2.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

POR 79.9–90.3 LAS 79.4–85.4 Overlap 5.52 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 85.1) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 82.4) — by 2.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

POR 80.4–89.8 LAS 79.7–85.1 Overlap 4.65 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 85.1) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 82.4) — by 2.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

POR 80.9–89.3 LAS 80.0–84.8 Overlap 3.93 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 85.1) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 82.4) — by 2.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

Show the math

Model: Vince Chambers (#1)
t-statistic: 3.78
p-value: 8.21e-03

A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.

Reg Tol Warning

POR 85.7–89.7 LAS 76.0–90.9 Overlap 3.99 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 86.7) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 83.4) — by 3.2 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

POR 85.7–89.3 LAS 77.1–89.8 Overlap 3.57 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 86.7) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 83.4) — by 3.2 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

POR 85.7–88.8 LAS 77.9–89.0 Overlap 3.14 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 86.7) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 83.4) — by 3.2 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

POR 85.7–88.4 LAS 78.5–88.4 Overlap 2.7 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 86.7) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 83.4) — by 3.2 points. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.

POR 85.7–88.0 LAS 79.0–87.9 Overlap 2.2 pts Actual: POR 84, LAS 105

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Portland Fire (avg. 86.7) over Los Angeles Sparks (avg. 83.4) — by 3.2 points. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.

Show the math

Model: Reg (#2)
t-statistic: 2.97
p-value: 1.94e-02

View as table

Vince Chambers — POR at LAS — Actual: POR 84, LAS 105
Level	POR range	LAS range	Overlap	Tol Warning	Actual landed in range?
95%	78.1–92.1	78.4–86.4	8.07 pts	Yes	No
90%	79.2–91.0	79.0–85.8	6.65 pts	Yes	No
85%	79.9–90.3	79.4–85.4	5.52 pts	Yes	No
80%	80.4–89.8	79.7–85.1	4.65 pts	Yes	No
75%	80.9–89.3	80.0–84.8	3.93 pts	Yes	No

Reg — POR at LAS — Actual: POR 84, LAS 105
Level	POR range	LAS range	Overlap	Tol Warning	Actual landed in range?
95%	85.7–89.7	76.0–90.9	3.99 pts	Yes	No
90%	85.7–89.3	77.1–89.8	3.57 pts	Yes	No
85%	85.7–88.8	77.9–89.0	3.14 pts	Yes	No
80%	85.7–88.4	78.5–88.4	2.7 pts	Yes	No
75%	85.7–88.0	79.0–87.9	2.2 pts	Yes	No