Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces

SEA 77 – LVA 98

September 20, 2026 · Final

Best model for this game

Reg

All models: 2-0

Prediction ranges

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

All 2 models’ predicted scores

SEA — one dot per model LVA — one dot per model Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

Vince Chambers Tol Warning

SEA 75.6–91.3 LVA 77.8–92.8 Overlap 13.43 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 85.3) over Seattle Storm (avg. 83.5) — by 1.9 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

SEA 76.8–90.1 LVA 79.0–91.6 Overlap 11.06 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 85.3) over Seattle Storm (avg. 83.5) — by 1.9 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

SEA 77.6–89.3 LVA 79.8–90.9 Overlap 9.51 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 85.3) over Seattle Storm (avg. 83.5) — by 1.9 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

SEA 78.3–88.6 LVA 80.3–90.3 Overlap 8.3 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 85.3) over Seattle Storm (avg. 83.5) — by 1.9 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

SEA 78.8–88.1 LVA 80.8–89.8 Overlap 7.3 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 85.3) over Seattle Storm (avg. 83.5) — by 1.9 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

Show the math

Model: Vince Chambers (#1)
t-statistic: -1.95
p-value: 8.67e-02

A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.

Reg Tol Warning

SEA 78.0–92.1 LVA 82.6–92.2 Overlap 9.51 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 87.4) over Seattle Storm (avg. 85.1) — by 2.4 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

SEA 79.1–91.0 LVA 83.4–91.5 Overlap 7.68 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 87.4) over Seattle Storm (avg. 85.1) — by 2.4 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

SEA 79.8–90.3 LVA 83.9–91.0 Overlap 6.47 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 87.4) over Seattle Storm (avg. 85.1) — by 2.4 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

SEA 80.4–89.8 LVA 84.2–90.6 Overlap 5.54 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 87.4) over Seattle Storm (avg. 85.1) — by 2.4 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

SEA 80.9–89.3 LVA 84.6–90.3 Overlap 4.76 pts Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Las Vegas Aces (avg. 87.4) over Seattle Storm (avg. 85.1) — by 2.4 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

Show the math

Model: Reg (#2)
t-statistic: -3.13
p-value: 1.65e-02

View as table

Vince Chambers — SEA at LVA — Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98
Level	SEA range	LVA range	Overlap	Tol Warning	Actual landed in range?
95%	75.6–91.3	77.8–92.8	13.43 pts	Yes	No
90%	76.8–90.1	79.0–91.6	11.06 pts	Yes	No
85%	77.6–89.3	79.8–90.9	9.51 pts	Yes	No
80%	78.3–88.6	80.3–90.3	8.3 pts	Yes	No
75%	78.8–88.1	80.8–89.8	7.3 pts	Yes	No

Reg — SEA at LVA — Actual: SEA 77, LVA 98
Level	SEA range	LVA range	Overlap	Tol Warning	Actual landed in range?
95%	78.0–92.1	82.6–92.2	9.51 pts	Yes	No
90%	79.1–91.0	83.4–91.5	7.68 pts	Yes	No
85%	79.8–90.3	83.9–91.0	6.47 pts	Yes	No
80%	80.4–89.8	84.2–90.6	5.54 pts	Yes	No
75%	80.9–89.3	84.6–90.3	4.76 pts	Yes	No