Washington Mystics at Indiana Fever

WAS 93 – IND 77

September 20, 2026 · Final

Best model for this game

Reg

All models: 0-2

Prediction ranges

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.

All 2 models’ predicted scores

WAS — one dot per model IND — one dot per model Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

Vince Chambers Tol Warning

WAS 84.9–88.7 IND 81.4–100.4 Overlap 3.86 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 90.9) over Washington Mystics (avg. 86.8) — by 4.1 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

WAS 85.2–88.4 IND 82.9–98.9 Overlap 3.27 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 90.9) over Washington Mystics (avg. 86.8) — by 4.1 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

WAS 85.4–88.2 IND 83.9–97.9 Overlap 2.87 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 90.9) over Washington Mystics (avg. 86.8) — by 4.1 points. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.

WAS 85.5–88.1 IND 84.6–97.2 Overlap 2.57 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 90.9) over Washington Mystics (avg. 86.8) — by 4.1 points. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.

WAS 85.7–88.0 IND 85.2–96.6 Overlap 2.31 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 90.9) over Washington Mystics (avg. 86.8) — by 4.1 points. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.

Show the math

Model: Vince Chambers (#1)
t-statistic: -4.79
p-value: 7.10e-03

A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.

Reg Tol Warning

WAS 80.5–95.1 IND 87.5–95.5 Overlap 7.55 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 91.5) over Washington Mystics (avg. 87.8) — by 3.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

WAS 81.6–94.0 IND 88.2–94.9 Overlap 5.81 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 91.5) over Washington Mystics (avg. 87.8) — by 3.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

WAS 82.4–93.2 IND 88.6–94.5 Overlap 4.66 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 91.5) over Washington Mystics (avg. 87.8) — by 3.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

WAS 83.0–92.7 IND 88.9–94.2 Overlap 3.77 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 91.5) over Washington Mystics (avg. 87.8) — by 3.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

WAS 83.4–92.2 IND 89.1–93.9 Overlap 3.03 pts Actual: WAS 93, IND 77

In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Indiana Fever (avg. 91.5) over Washington Mystics (avg. 87.8) — by 3.7 points. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.

Show the math

Model: Reg (#2)
t-statistic: -5.09
p-value: 2.05e-03

View as table

Vince Chambers — WAS at IND — Actual: WAS 93, IND 77
Level	WAS range	IND range	Overlap	Tol Warning	Actual landed in range?
95%	84.9–88.7	81.4–100.4	3.86 pts	Yes	No
90%	85.2–88.4	82.9–98.9	3.27 pts	Yes	No
85%	85.4–88.2	83.9–97.9	2.87 pts	Yes	No
80%	85.5–88.1	84.6–97.2	2.57 pts	Yes	No
75%	85.7–88.0	85.2–96.6	2.31 pts	Yes	No

Reg — WAS at IND — Actual: WAS 93, IND 77
Level	WAS range	IND range	Overlap	Tol Warning	Actual landed in range?
95%	80.5–95.1	87.5–95.5	7.55 pts	Yes	No
90%	81.6–94.0	88.2–94.9	5.81 pts	Yes	No
85%	82.4–93.2	88.6–94.5	4.66 pts	Yes	No
80%	83.0–92.7	88.9–94.2	3.77 pts	Yes	No
75%	83.4–92.2	89.1–93.9	3.03 pts	Yes	No