Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury
DAL 86 – PHX 87
September 21, 2026 · Final
Best model for this game
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, each team scored inside its band below — this is about where the final score lands, not a claim about the average.
All 12 models’ predicted scores
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.6) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.6) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.6) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.6) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.6) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Vince Chambers (#1)
- t-statistic
- 3.37
- p-value
- 8.87e-04
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
Show the math
- Model
- Reg (#2)
- t-statistic
- 2.29
- p-value
- 2.28e-02
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Dr. Wallace (#3)
- t-statistic
- 4.81
- p-value
- 2.63e-06
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 87.0) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 87.0) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 87.0) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 87.0) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 87.0) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Kevin (#4)
- t-statistic
- 5.11
- p-value
- 6.45e-07
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 85.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 85.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 85.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 85.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 85.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 85.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 85.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 85.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 85.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 85.5) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Dr. Lila Shah (#5)
- t-statistic
- 2.46
- p-value
- 1.47e-02
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.2) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Ice (#6)
- t-statistic
- 3.08
- p-value
- 2.32e-03
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.5) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.3) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.5) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.3) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.5) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.3) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.5) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.3) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.5) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.3) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Jamal (#7)
- t-statistic
- 1.44
- p-value
- 1.51e-01
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Jordan (#8)
- t-statistic
- 2.37
- p-value
- 1.88e-02
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Darren "Dimes" Lin (#9)
- t-statistic
- 4.18
- p-value
- 4.08e-05
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.7) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.1) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Maya Jefferson (#10)
- t-statistic
- 3.47
- p-value
- 6.26e-04
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.8) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.4) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Lexi (#11)
- t-statistic
- 2.30
- p-value
- 2.26e-02
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
In 95 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap almost entirely, so one game could go either way.
In 90 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 85 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 80 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
In 75 out of 100 simulated runs, leans Dallas Wings (avg. 86.9) over Phoenix Mercury (avg. 86.0) — by under a point. The ranges overlap some — there's real uncertainty here.
Show the math
- Model
- Coach Sarah Watanabe (#12)
- t-statistic
- 6.39
- p-value
- 9.22e-10
A low p-value means the two teams' average scores are statistically distinguishable — even when their ranges above overlap. Overlap describes where the final score could land; the test above is about whether the two averages differ. They are different claims, and either can hold without the other.
View as table
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 84.1–89.1 | 84.6–88.5 | 3.87 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 84.5–88.7 | 84.8–87.7 | 2.88 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 84.8–88.4 | 84.9–87.6 | 2.71 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 85.0–88.2 | 85.0–87.6 | 2.56 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.2–88.1 | 85.1–87.5 | 2.35 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 83.8–90.1 | 83.7–89.4 | 5.58 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 84.3–89.6 | 84.1–88.9 | 4.62 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 84.6–89.2 | 84.4–88.6 | 3.99 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 84.9–89.0 | 84.7–88.4 | 3.51 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.1–88.8 | 84.9–88.2 | 3.11 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 83.9–89.7 | 84.3–88.3 | 4.08 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 84.4–89.2 | 84.5–87.5 | 3.0 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 84.7–88.9 | 84.7–87.4 | 2.68 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 84.9–88.7 | 84.9–87.3 | 2.44 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.1–88.5 | 84.9–87.2 | 2.1 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 84.3–89.7 | 84.4–88.9 | 4.51 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 84.8–89.3 | 84.5–88.5 | 3.71 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 85.0–89.0 | 84.8–87.9 | 2.85 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 85.3–88.8 | 84.8–87.8 | 2.54 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.4–88.6 | 85.0–87.6 | 2.18 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 83.3–88.4 | 82.7–88.2 | 4.93 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 83.7–88.0 | 83.2–87.8 | 4.08 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 84.0–87.7 | 83.5–87.5 | 3.52 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 84.2–87.5 | 83.7–87.3 | 3.09 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 84.3–87.4 | 83.9–87.1 | 2.74 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 83.9–89.5 | 84.5–89.1 | 4.62 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 84.4–89.0 | 84.7–88.6 | 3.87 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 84.7–88.7 | 84.8–88.1 | 3.25 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 84.9–88.5 | 84.9–87.6 | 2.71 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.1–88.3 | 84.9–87.4 | 2.32 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 84.4–88.5 | 83.7–88.8 | 4.08 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 84.9–88.4 | 84.1–88.4 | 3.45 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 84.9–88.2 | 84.4–88.1 | 3.16 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 85.0–88.0 | 84.6–87.9 | 2.87 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.2–87.8 | 84.8–87.7 | 2.52 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 84.0–89.6 | 84.4–89.2 | 4.76 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 84.5–89.1 | 84.7–88.9 | 4.24 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 84.8–88.8 | 84.8–88.5 | 3.68 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 85.0–88.6 | 84.8–88.2 | 3.26 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.2–88.4 | 85.0–88.1 | 2.92 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 84.0–89.4 | 83.3–88.8 | 4.77 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 84.5–89.0 | 83.7–88.4 | 3.89 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 84.7–88.7 | 84.0–88.1 | 3.32 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 85.0–88.5 | 84.2–87.9 | 2.89 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.1–88.3 | 84.4–87.7 | 2.52 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 83.7–89.8 | 83.4–88.9 | 5.21 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 84.2–89.3 | 83.8–88.4 | 4.28 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 84.5–89.0 | 84.1–88.1 | 3.67 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 84.7–88.7 | 84.3–87.9 | 3.2 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 84.9–88.5 | 84.5–87.7 | 2.81 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 84.9–89.5 | 83.8–89.6 | 4.63 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 85.1–89.1 | 84.1–88.6 | 3.47 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 85.3–88.8 | 84.4–88.1 | 2.83 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 85.4–88.5 | 84.7–88.0 | 2.58 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.5–88.4 | 85.0–87.8 | 2.26 pts | — | Yes |
| Level | DAL range | PHX range | Overlap | Tol Warning | Actual landed in range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 85.1–89.3 | 83.6–88.4 | 3.31 pts | — | Yes |
| 90% | 85.2–88.8 | 84.0–88.0 | 2.77 pts | — | Yes |
| 85% | 85.3–88.6 | 84.2–87.7 | 2.45 pts | — | Yes |
| 80% | 85.6–88.4 | 84.4–87.6 | 1.97 pts | — | Yes |
| 75% | 85.8–88.3 | 84.6–87.4 | 1.57 pts | — | Yes |